Towards Our Safe and Secure Energy Future

By Dr. Anil Kakodkar

Summary

This Forum of Free Enterprise booklet reproduces the 44th A. D. Shroff Memorial Lecture, delivered in Mumbai on 27 October 2010 by Dr. Anil Kakodkar, eminent nuclear scientist and former Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission. Framing energy security as a question of India’s “very survival” in a competitive world, Kakodkar argues that to sustain 9%-plus GDP growth over coming decades India’s total energy requirement will have to grow more than tenfold in twenty years, and that per-capita power consumption — at a woefully low 650 KWH — must be pitched at least toward a modest 2000 KWH per capita, requiring generating capacity to be augmented more than twenty times.

The lecture surveys the available options — coal and thermal (currently about 65% of generation), nuclear, solar, wind and bio-mass — and weighs their feasibility against constraints of land, environment and climate. Kakodkar warns that although India holds the largest coal reserves, at the higher consumption levels those reserves would be exhausted within roughly fifteen years, and that meeting demand through coal imports on the required scale would choke infrastructure. He presents comparative data on world, OECD and non-OECD population, electricity generation and carbon-dioxide emission to argue that development aspirations and climate constraints create a dual challenge for developing countries.

His core recommendation is that nuclear energy — presently only about 3% of the country’s supply — is the best long-term option, pursued through a three-stage indigenous programme combining domestic PHWRs and fast breeder reactors with imported light water reactors and recycled fuel, advanced thorium technology, and high-level diplomacy to secure uranium. He projects that this strategy could bridge a sustained 25-30% requirement-availability gap and preserve India’s technological self-reliance even after import restrictions were lifted. Delivered before the March 2011 Fukushima incident, the lecture is presented by FFE President Minoo R. Shroff with a note that, despite Fukushima, India should not reject or delay Jaitapur and other nuclear projects given its serious power deficiency.

Key points

• Delivered as the 44th A. D. Shroff Memorial Lecture, Mumbai, 27 October 2010, by nuclear scientist Dr. Anil Kakodkar.

• To sustain 9%-plus GDP growth, India’s total energy requirement must grow over tenfold in twenty years.

• India’s per-capita power consumption (~650 KWH) is far below emerging-country norms; Kakodkar urges a target of at least 2000 KWH per capita, needing 20x more capacity.

• Coal supplies ~65% of generation; at higher consumption India’s coal reserves would run out in about fifteen years and import-scale logistics would choke infrastructure.

• Nuclear energy (only ~3% of supply) is presented as the best long-term option, via a three-stage indigenous PHWR/fast-breeder/thorium programme plus imported LWRs and recycled fuel.

• Comparative world/OECD/non-OECD data frame the dual challenge of development aspirations versus carbon-dioxide and climate constraints.

• The lecture argues this strategy preserves India’s energy independence and technological self-reliance even after import restrictions are lifted.

• FFE President Minoo R. Shroff’s introduction, written post-Fukushima (10 May 2011), urges India not to reject or delay Jaitapur and other nuclear projects.

Generated by the v1.5 extraction pipeline. Awaiting editorial review.